All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

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All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 10:38 am ACST

The Tassie bid team have announced the consultancy firm Gemba will prepare their bid. At least they are now conceding that they have to make the economic argument as well, whereas a lot of their rhetoric was along the lines that they simply deserved it.

Finance model to boost Tassie AFL bid

The biggest 3 questions in my mind will be demonstrating they can generate $30million (and growing) turnover each year, where they would propose to play games (they must surely come up with a viable model showing a split of home games between Launceston and Hobart) and (this may be more a question for the AFL) where does it all fit in with a 16-18-19 team competition?

If the state government guarantees enough support (remembering they already bankroll Hawthorn's games in Launceston), then if they get a couple of big companies to commit and can demonstrate enough people would come on board as members, then they must be a chance.

A typical 11 game season ticket in the AFL might be say $250 per year (depending on the ground, undercover or not, etc). Would a Tassie club offers tiers, like A - 11 home games for $250, B - 5 in Launceston for $140, C - 6 in Hobart for $160.

Where to fit a new club in would be the AFL's biggest headache, but better to have clubs trying to squeeze in rather than lack of interest. As they say at selection each week when good players are returning from injury and their replacements have been playing well - a good problem to have.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 09:17 pm ACST

Tasmania's bid is starting to look like its most serious chance thus far. There are reportedly several major companies looking at committing to sponsor the bid / potential club, including Toll Holdings that is based in Victoria but handles transport to Victoria's island neighbour, and also Andrew Forrest, supposedly Australia's richest man, on paper at AUD$1.4 billion. Now this is pie in the sky stuff, but just suppose someone like that committed to $10 million a year for their first 20 years. It would "only" take 0.2 of that 1.4 billion. That would make them easily financially sound, and obviously would boost the game in that state. Now things never work that way, but a serious backer such as Forrest could certainly eliminate any doubt round the margins of a bid.

With politicians jumping on board too, it seems increasingly likely a bid that stacks up okay will be formulated. But it's highly unlikely the AFL or the AFL clubs would support the idea of 19 teams at this point in time. And with such a huge investment in QLD and NSW, and having said they are going there, it would be seen as a massive embarrassing backdown for the game if they didn't form those 2nd teams. The Gold Coast is basically a done deal and West Sydney is underway.

If we assume those 2 clubs will happen, and no other clubs fold or merge, how can another licence be found? What is the best likely outcome for Tassie - a promise that they are next if one comes up? This could be a case of the best laid plans of the AFL didn't really allow for this and they'll have to do so some brainstorming on the run.

Incidentally, Jim Stynes is targeting August as the month to try to demolish Melbourne Football Club's $4 or $5 million debt. Wonder if any Tasmanians will be opening their wallets...

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 09:18 pm ACST

Forgot to add the link to the most recent story:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/billionaire-backs-tasmanias-bid/2008/07/12/1215658206389.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 02:02 pm ACST

Looks like the Tassie bid team is now realising that their best option will be to be ready if a Victorian team folds or relocates.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/25/2315111.htm?section=sport

http://afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=64199

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Friday, August 01 2008 @ 12:06 pm ACST

"Show me the money" - that's what Tassie are doing. Mars confectionary has backed the Tasmanian AFL license bid.

http://www.afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=64575

Sounds a bit X-files - "I want to believe". But it should mean they can sustain a prolonged push to be next in line.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Thursday, August 07 2008 @ 10:16 pm ACST

Interesting that the two men widely seen as the game's two visionaries, Sheedy and Barassi, have come down on opposite sides of the argument as to whether Tassie can support a side.

http://news.realfooty.com.au/sport/barassi-against-melbourne-relocating-20080807-3rn3.html

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Sean Finlayson
on Monday, September 29 2008 @ 11:32 am ACST

Just a little epilogue to this story Brett. Now that the Hawks have won a Grand Final, it is obviously going to make it much harder for the Tassie bid, particularly with Hawthorn president Kennett now the one saying "show me the money" to Tasmania. Personally I think it will just get Tasmanians thinking about what it would if they did it themselves (afterall only Freo haven't to date).

However all of the people you have cited as opponents of the Tassie side have conflicts of interests and therefore misquoted. Brendon Gale is part of the AFL system - of course he's going to tow the line, regardless of whether he is Tasmanian or not. And as for Barassi, his comments were not anti-Tasmania, they were anti relocation he has previously said he supports the concept of a new club.

If you want to cite well known people then here is the official list of notable people against the bid 1) Andrew Demetriou (AFL CEO) 2) Mike Fitzpatrick (AFL Chairman) and 3) Brendon Gale (AFL PA CEO). All AFL people and unfortunately for Tassie, these people also call the shots from AFL House.

Now here is the list of notable people for a Tassie team: Kevin Sheedy, Alastair Lynch, Tim Lane, Matthew Richardson, Russell Robertson, Dennis Pagan, Rodney Eade, Sam Lane, Jason Akermanis, Peter Hudson, Ron Barassi, Steve Harris (businessman), Andrew Forrest (Australia's richest man), David Bartlett (Tas premier), Paul Lennon (former Tas permier) and John Brumby (Vic premier). Even Jeff Kennett supports the concept in principle but has a conflict of interest as Hawthorn's president. Tassie now also have an impressive list of sponsors already includes Mars, TOTE and MyState Financial.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Monday, September 29 2008 @ 05:38 pm ACST

Sean virtually everyone wants Tassie to have a team if they can afford it. The debate is about whether they can. Barassi says in the article "Tassie's a real heartbreaker - they deserve to be in the competition but I don't see how they can afford it" and "We already have three or four clubs at the money table, I don't think we should do the same thing with Tasmania".

So he believes the only way it can happen is with a Victorian club relocating, and he says it should not be Melbourne. So he would like to see Tassie get a team but thinks it presumably should be North Melbourne or.... if not Melbourne who else is financially struggling in Melbourne? But he is against them getting a new team of their own on financial grounds.

As for lining up people either side, it is mainly dividing up people who think Tassie can afford it or not, or who are prepared to include the financial consideration in answering the question. You say some of the people I named are "part of the AFL system" and so "have conflicts of interests and therefore misquoted". No, better check your definition of misquoted.

However, if you're saying they can't be included as having a valid opinion, well Gale is with the AFL Players Association, does that make him captive to the AFL? Is he as pro-anything AFL as you are anti-AFL? Most people have their own biases. A large number of the people you name are Tasmanians - are they thinking rationally or emotionally - do they just want a team at any cost? As for Andrew Forrest, yes, I believe I was the one who mentioned him in this thread - let's hope he puts his money where his mouth is, as he could single handedly ensure a Tassie team.

Perhaps we can focus on the fresh info you bring to this old thread - the impact of Hawthorn winning the flag. Tasmania is their major sponsor and the Hawks today paraded the Cup around Tassie. You said it will make it harder for Tassie, but also that you think it will motivate them more. I'm really not sure what effect it will have. Yes, should motivate them more and make it seem even more real. But I guess it might make more Tasmanians really get behind Hawthorn, which will make Hawthorn even more keen to keep the deal going, and even more dependent on Tasmanian money and against them getting their own team.

I still think a relocated Melbourne club is their best chance. With a potential world economic downturn it could make life all the more difficult for say North Melbourne, Melbourne and other clubs under the pump. But it also might make it more difficult for Tassie to put up a strong bid.

I think we're all in the dark until a bit more time passes.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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