AFL pay day likely to yield an international dividend

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AFL pay day likely to yield an international dividend

Authored by: Michael Christiansen
on Monday, May 02 2011 @ 08:45 am ACST

What has been interesting has been the 'reaction' from other codes (and the journo's reporting on other codes).

the one and only Roy Masters, NRL journo married to former AFL tribunal member Elaine Canty - Masters often has more than a bit to say about the AFL. For some time, he's suggested the AFL would be lucky to get $800 million and that the NRL should surely equal the AFL deal.

In the Australian context, he claims the NRL out rates the AFL. This is one of those claims based on bending the numbers to suit. In a recent season, the total RL product (not all 'NRL' 'owned', some 'ARL') of 192 H&A matches + finals, 3 SoO, test(s) and City v Country and All stars game managed to squeeze ahead of the AFL (176 H&A and + finals). However, when aggregating the 'average' audience figure, there's of course a clear issue to consider.

An AFL game generally provides (4 * 30 min qtrs) 120 mins worth (and will, siren to siren per quarter on Foxtel next year, compared to an NRL match being 80 mins. That's 50% more.

On the H&A example. The AFL 176 matches equates to 352 hours. The NRL 192 matches equates to 256 hours. That's one consideration.

Ratings need to be considered too. In Australia, often the most 'immediate' ratings at the 5 city metro (OzTam), then, the addition of 4 (RegTam) regionals. The metros, a lot of people fail to realise that Geelong is included in Melbourne. That the Gold Coast down to the NSW border (Tweed river) is included in Brisbane, and Gosford slips into Sydney).

The regionals are Nrth NSW (includes a portion of double counting with Gold Coast to the North and Gosford to the south), Sth NSW (misses out on the North bank of the Murray, so, Victoria gets Albury, Corowa, Finley, Jerilderie etc), QLD (includes a Sunshine coast carve up and double counting with Brisbane of Maroochydore, Mooloolaba and others), and Victoria (double counting is limited to minor localities like Inverloch, Neerim and Longwarry!!! (not really significant!!).

The regionals do NOT count Tasmania, not NT, do NOT count regional WA, SA, and parts of Vic (Mildura), parts of NSW (Griffith, Broken Hill) and outback QLD (Roma).

End result, is a ratings 'universe' of over 23 million, about 1.5 million ahead of the ABS 'population clock'!!! Ratings NEED to be 'corrected', so, often, take the overnight result with a grain of salt. In fact, in recent years, we've seen the NRL claim Grand Final victory based on the over night figures, only, for the corrected figures to proove otherwise when published a few weeks later.

The ratings these days also allow for a 'time shift', which is watching in full a program on PVR (personal video recorders) any time up to 7 days after broadcast.

Suffice to say, too many simpletons try to make simplistic arguments.

The Foxtel scenario is important as Foxtel underwrote the main increase the AFL got this time around. Foxtel are after NEW subscribers for 'growth', and they have their highest market penetration in Sydney - and are seeking growth in AFL states. Foxtel are 'only' concerned about ratings with respect to customer retention. However, with new media platforms in the offing, they need to shore up a broader customer base.

Just what the NRL can eek out will be interesting. Then most likely need to split up their product offerings so that SoO for example can seriously be put to the market.

So far though, the credibility of a Roy Masters in questioned, he's missed the mark by a lazy $450 million!!! Astonishingly for some, Caroline Wilson has improved her credibility. So, when people talk about their 'sources', be sure to add a grain or two of salt.

And what's left for the FFA and the HAL?? (especially if the Socceroos are not packaged with the HAL).

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