Cairns v Townsville – Which will be the home of an AFL team by 2030?

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Cairns v Townsville – Which will be the home of an AFL team by 2030?

Authored by: Wesley Hull
on Tuesday, February 19 2013 @ 07:53 pm ACDT

That's a good question, Harley. I'm not entirely sure they are looking at "boutique", but are looking at major population centres. Much of Sydney's 4.5 million population is in the western direction towards the Blue Mountains, with hubs around Blacktown, Parramatta and Penrith as well as larger centres like Liverpool and Campbelltown in the south-west and Richmond/Winsdor in the north-west. The ground might be boutique, but the aim isn't in my view. Similarly, the Gold Coast with it's population closing in on half a million has attracted many sporting franchises because it is a large population centre. Brisbane and Sydney moved teams to large population centres and both Perth and Adelaide have split million plus populations. I think any decision on new clubs is based on that, and is the main reason why Tasmania and Darwin are not in yet...not enough people. Canberra is an anomoly here, but the argument is probably that of the 350,000 plus people living in the ACT, too big a majority are pro-league. This is why I see the logic in the AFL looking to the north in the future. Townsville and Cairns are growing rapidly and have strong ex-pat factors and strong leagues already in place. It is logical to head there if the population doubles, and if the Tony Abbott plan of populating the north does go ahead that growth may happen even more quickly.

Cairns v Townsville – Which will be the home of an AFL team by 2030?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Tuesday, February 19 2013 @ 09:51 pm ACDT

The article mentions a North Queensland population of 4.5 million, but I think that's meant to be Queensland as a whole, of which over 3 million is in the Brisbane-Gold Coast etc south east Queensland corner.

But still, yes I see the northern area as a candidate probably ahead of Darwin because they already far outstrip Darwin for population and are growing much faster in gross numbers.

My preference would probably be Tassie and NZ (incorporating South Pacific) come in around 2024, then regional QLD possibly incorporating PNG when the previous two are bedded down.

But there's got to be a limit to what broadcasters etc will pay for games when there's so many (unless international viewing is well up). So these other areas may be dependent on relocations or mergers or folding. Currently I feel the number in Melbourne and all the "disequal" distribution of the game's money and the money North Melbourne and Hawthorn get out of Tasmania is what is keeping Tassie out of the AFL.

Even today we see Melbourne fined $500,000 for what was an investigation into tanking, which in my mind is effectively the most serious threat to the sport ever - match fixing - determining the outcome of games not based on the teams' ability. So a largish fine, but there seems little doubt the AFL will effectively pay for it out of the disequalisation scheme which pays more to clubs the worse off they are. (I heard one radio caller suggest that in effect Melbourne are getting the AFL to pay $500,000 for Melbourne to get the number one draft pick bonus - that's one way of looking at it. Contrast with Adelaide losing the equivalent of 5 to 6 draft picks for fiddling at the edges with one player's contract - two very different standards applied here, but I digress....).

Anyway, all rampant speculation. But I would be concerned if I were a Tassie football official - they need to keep pushing hard because in 20 years they could well be swamped by exploding population centres putting forward lucrative cases.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Cairns v Townsville – Which will be the home of an AFL team by 2030?

Authored by: Harley Vague
on Wednesday, February 20 2013 @ 11:43 am ACDT

I mention "boutique" because it's all about the stadium contracts and club viability relative to the obtainable crowd. Geelong is at the top end of boutique grounds(if it can still be called boutique). Canberra, GC and GWS have their immediate populations if they can gain market share. Cairns together with Townsville would place them along side Tasmania as a regional team with boutique grounds possibily playing out of dual locations ,

As for expansion, that is a very unpredictable path. I'm sure there will be further expansion but the exact timeframe and path is up for grabs. IMO the likely scenario is a mixture of re-location and creation. The irony of the situation is that Hawthorn is too successful now to be considered a candigate for the two markets they help develop Tasmania and NZ.An AFL team might relocate to Tasmania or Canberra because they are sufficiently close for supporters to feel they are in contact. NQ and NZ are probably considered too distant for relocation. Good points about NZ including the SP and NQ including the PNG. Darwin is always going to struggle with it's low population so a NQ team could play the odd game (literally) at Darwin.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Cairns v Townsville – Which will be the home of an AFL team by 2030?

Authored by: Tobietta Rhyman
on Friday, February 22 2013 @ 09:32 am ACDT

Everyone's talking as if it's only the population of those towns which support the club. There's probably more Geelong supporters outside of Victoria than people living in Geelong. The same goes for the teams outside of Melbourne. If the only supporters were the ones living in those cities the teams would surely faily, simply because of the majority of matches being in Melbourne and the huge travelling distances involved for fans. It's not a stretch of the imagination to say that most Lions or Swans fans attending "away" games in Melbourne probably live there.

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AFL England Women's Football Co-ordinator; WFN Female Football Writer

Cairns v Townsville – Which will be the home of an AFL team by 2030?

Authored by: Wesley Hull
on Friday, February 22 2013 @ 11:43 am ACDT

Tobietta, you are quite right. The support of clubs is way byond the boundaries of that city, suburd or locality and I know for a fact that there are Essendon supporter in all corners of the globe. But the thinking of the AFL will still be governed by a population base which will fill the seats in stadium. As soon as Sydney's figures dropped in the mid 90's and they couldn't beat an egg, all sorts of deals were done to get people to ste SCG...special offers, promotions and so on. The AFL still places a heavy emphasis on the tribalism that goes with a club. The best evidence of this is probably the argument about Essendon v Collingwood on Anzac Day. They believe that those two clubs will pack the MCG (so would others, but it's a perception that the Bomber and Magpie tribes will be a guarantee). This thinking will be part of the North Quensland decision. As long as seats and memberships and local sponsorships can be guaranteed from the local population, the AFL would be happy. If not they will look elsewhere. Clubs like Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond have always had a very strong heartland...the fouundation on which all other support and sponsorship is built. Any new club will need that, but if a club gets relocted there it helps that process. It was Mick Conlan the CEO of AFL Queensland who stated the 4.5 million figure for the north. It is actually well below that...lucky to be half a million...and most support rugby league...so it will be a tough gig to get a solid heartland following.

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AFL England Women's Football Co-ordinator; WFN Female Football Writer

Cairns v Townsville – Which will be the home of an AFL team by 2030?

Authored by: Harley Vague
on Friday, February 22 2013 @ 01:12 pm ACDT

Tobietta whilst you are right about the spread of supporters it's the home crowd drawing power that determines a club's viability. It's about a centres's population, it's hinterland, it's market share, it's facilities and overall attractiveness. The good news is that the more regional a centre, the more per head of population a regional centre tends to attract. This probably due to the lack alternative entertainments. A place like Darwin produces crowds that are sometimes a huge percentage of it's city. It'd be a big ask to do that on a regular basis. Townsville I believe draws on it's hinterland a lot. People can easily drive in and watch a game. A few more people will attend if the ground and facilities are up to scratch and located conveniently. .A good number will attend if the team is attractive because they are successful, or play attractively or are engaged in some "tribal" battle. Some people do travel distances to attend games like Swans in Canberra. The GWS concept is interesting. The Giants share two cities. I'd say not too many of their fans travel atm. There'd be a much greater connection with Cairns/Townsville or Hobart/Launceston. Even the NZ game is expected to draw some Aussie tourists but that would be hard to duplicate on a regular basis.

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AFL England Women's Football Co-ordinator; WFN Female Football Writer

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