All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

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All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Sean Finlayson
on Saturday, July 05 2008 @ 10:45 am ACST

Brett, how much of this second paragraph was researched and not just personal point of view ? The distance between Melbourne and Hobart is almost identical to the distance to Adelaide and surely it is easier to go by land than across Bass Strait. I think you'll find that some Victorians in fact did choose to play in Tasmania, take the great Stuart Spencer for example. I think you'll find that Tasmania has defeated Victoria under State of Origin rules quite a few times. Also, the economy and population is not "less severe", it has in fact completely reversed in the last decade. See the recent ABC article The good life boosts Tasmanian population.

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Aaron Richard
on Saturday, July 05 2008 @ 01:58 pm ACST

Sean, if you re-read the article, you've misinterpreted the "less severe" line.
Brett actually says that the problems of economy and population are on the way
back up, not down.

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, July 06 2008 @ 12:26 pm ACST

And I'm not sure what having an example of a Victorian go play in Tasmania proves?

Regarding population, this issue has been done to death in many places. If people don't want to believe it's an issue then I'm afraid they're sticking their head in the sand. Of course the AFL would want a strong successful Tassie team if there was a big market to support it. However the situation is far more borderline. It seems every time this issue comes up the numbers need to be re-stated.

But let's go again. Tasmania's 2 biggest cities. Launceston, where Hawthorn games in Tassie are played - population around 100,000. Enough to support an AFL club - no way. Hobart, the capital, population 200,000. Enough for an AFL team - maybe (but compare it with the population share most AFL clubs have, with 2 clubs in cities like Perth, pop. 1.5 million, Adelaide 1.2 million, Brisbane 1 club, 1.8 million, Melbourne 9 clubs, 3.8 million at average of 420k each, but several struggling). Are the 2 centres close enough to have significant travelling from one to the other for matches - highly questionable.

Economy. Much improved, but still no where near the corporate levels of other major Australian cities. Definitely not as big an issue as in the past.

For the record I think Tassie should get a team, but there are there are major issues they will need to address that can't simply be wished away by dodgy stats and they are going to need very high levels of public support.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Sean Finlayson
on Monday, July 07 2008 @ 08:45 pm ACST

If not opinionated, you certainly seem at least prejudiced on this issue.

It appears that you disagree with Kevin Sheedy, who cites the example of the Green Bay Packers ? Who is to say that Tasmania can't draw support from all around Australia.

You also neglected to mention that Geelong, which has an AFL team has a population less than Hobart's.

You also forgot to mention that Tasmania has a total population of half a million, the same as the Gold Coast which is a potential franchise all within just 2 hours of Launceston. As you say, proximity to the Victoria is a bonus for Aurora Stadium. It is a cheap one hour flight from Melbourne, which puts a supporter base of nearly 4 million on its doorstep, which is exactly why the Hawthorn Hawks regularly play there in front of strong 20,000 crowds.

But population isn't the be all and end all. Split Adelaide in half and you have two teams supported by the equivalent population of Tasmania. And South Australia is not really any better performing in terms of either economy or population growth than Tasmania.

Population also didn't stop the Brisbane Bears and Sydney Swans from posting some of the most appaling crowds in the VFL/AFL for decades. These days there is no denying, through merger or relocation that these clubs rely on the fact that nearly half of the supporters are still based in Victoria. The same can't be said for the new franchises.

There are more arguments for a team than against, but unfortunately the old cultural cringe affects Tasmania from all directions.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Monday, July 07 2008 @ 11:26 pm ACST

No prejudice Sean, just not letting emotion outweigh the facts.

You can always roll out people on either side. Brendan Gale, head of the AFL Players Association and also a Tasmanian said that football there was not ready and needed to get its own house in order. I'm not one to believe that just because someone like Sheedy says something it is therefore fact.

Unfortunately your Adelaide point doesn't help. Adelaide's population of 1.2 million is in one city, Tasmania's 500k is spread out across the island, that is a fact that is always conveniently overlooked by those making the emotive pro-argument. Maybe on a good run Launceston to Hobart is 2 hours. Throw in traffic at either city's oval and the game time and you're looking at an 8 hour commitment - some will do that, but presumably some of the task before the bid team will be to demonstrate that enough will.

Geelong is perhaps the only genuine similar example. They've had a lot of support from Ford, from government, and are right next door to Melbourne where they also have a large supporter base. But yes, they are a model that the Taswegians will probably look at.

Hopefully the panel put together to make their bid will seriously address the issues and come up with a serious business case. Like I said, I would like to see a Tassie team. I'm really not sure what this cringe factor you refer to is supposed to be about, do you think Tasmania is looked down upon? It isn't by me or people I know and the ones I've worked with haven't been subject to anything like that. I have noticed that some Victorians do like to play up the "in-bred" slur but I don't think that's particularly a stereotype that is played up elsewhere in Australia. I'd like to think the AFL is above any such prejudice themselves.

Fingers crossed they can win inclusion, but it does seem that it's unlikely until if/when the number of Melbourne clubs reduces. I'd be happy to be wrong.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 10:38 am ACST

The Tassie bid team have announced the consultancy firm Gemba will prepare their bid. At least they are now conceding that they have to make the economic argument as well, whereas a lot of their rhetoric was along the lines that they simply deserved it.

Finance model to boost Tassie AFL bid

The biggest 3 questions in my mind will be demonstrating they can generate $30million (and growing) turnover each year, where they would propose to play games (they must surely come up with a viable model showing a split of home games between Launceston and Hobart) and (this may be more a question for the AFL) where does it all fit in with a 16-18-19 team competition?

If the state government guarantees enough support (remembering they already bankroll Hawthorn's games in Launceston), then if they get a couple of big companies to commit and can demonstrate enough people would come on board as members, then they must be a chance.

A typical 11 game season ticket in the AFL might be say $250 per year (depending on the ground, undercover or not, etc). Would a Tassie club offers tiers, like A - 11 home games for $250, B - 5 in Launceston for $140, C - 6 in Hobart for $160.

Where to fit a new club in would be the AFL's biggest headache, but better to have clubs trying to squeeze in rather than lack of interest. As they say at selection each week when good players are returning from injury and their replacements have been playing well - a good problem to have.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 09:17 pm ACST

Tasmania's bid is starting to look like its most serious chance thus far. There are reportedly several major companies looking at committing to sponsor the bid / potential club, including Toll Holdings that is based in Victoria but handles transport to Victoria's island neighbour, and also Andrew Forrest, supposedly Australia's richest man, on paper at AUD$1.4 billion. Now this is pie in the sky stuff, but just suppose someone like that committed to $10 million a year for their first 20 years. It would "only" take 0.2 of that 1.4 billion. That would make them easily financially sound, and obviously would boost the game in that state. Now things never work that way, but a serious backer such as Forrest could certainly eliminate any doubt round the margins of a bid.

With politicians jumping on board too, it seems increasingly likely a bid that stacks up okay will be formulated. But it's highly unlikely the AFL or the AFL clubs would support the idea of 19 teams at this point in time. And with such a huge investment in QLD and NSW, and having said they are going there, it would be seen as a massive embarrassing backdown for the game if they didn't form those 2nd teams. The Gold Coast is basically a done deal and West Sydney is underway.

If we assume those 2 clubs will happen, and no other clubs fold or merge, how can another licence be found? What is the best likely outcome for Tassie - a promise that they are next if one comes up? This could be a case of the best laid plans of the AFL didn't really allow for this and they'll have to do so some brainstorming on the run.

Incidentally, Jim Stynes is targeting August as the month to try to demolish Melbourne Football Club's $4 or $5 million debt. Wonder if any Tasmanians will be opening their wallets...

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 09:18 pm ACST

Forgot to add the link to the most recent story:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/billionaire-backs-tasmanias-bid/2008/07/12/1215658206389.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 02:02 pm ACST

Looks like the Tassie bid team is now realising that their best option will be to be ready if a Victorian team folds or relocates.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/25/2315111.htm?section=sport

http://afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=64199

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Friday, August 01 2008 @ 12:06 pm ACST

"Show me the money" - that's what Tassie are doing. Mars confectionary has backed the Tasmanian AFL license bid.

http://www.afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=64575

Sounds a bit X-files - "I want to believe". But it should mean they can sustain a prolonged push to be next in line.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Thursday, August 07 2008 @ 10:16 pm ACST

Interesting that the two men widely seen as the game's two visionaries, Sheedy and Barassi, have come down on opposite sides of the argument as to whether Tassie can support a side.

http://news.realfooty.com.au/sport/barassi-against-melbourne-relocating-20080807-3rn3.html

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Sean Finlayson
on Monday, September 29 2008 @ 11:32 am ACST

Just a little epilogue to this story Brett. Now that the Hawks have won a Grand Final, it is obviously going to make it much harder for the Tassie bid, particularly with Hawthorn president Kennett now the one saying "show me the money" to Tasmania. Personally I think it will just get Tasmanians thinking about what it would if they did it themselves (afterall only Freo haven't to date).

However all of the people you have cited as opponents of the Tassie side have conflicts of interests and therefore misquoted. Brendon Gale is part of the AFL system - of course he's going to tow the line, regardless of whether he is Tasmanian or not. And as for Barassi, his comments were not anti-Tasmania, they were anti relocation he has previously said he supports the concept of a new club.

If you want to cite well known people then here is the official list of notable people against the bid 1) Andrew Demetriou (AFL CEO) 2) Mike Fitzpatrick (AFL Chairman) and 3) Brendon Gale (AFL PA CEO). All AFL people and unfortunately for Tassie, these people also call the shots from AFL House.

Now here is the list of notable people for a Tassie team: Kevin Sheedy, Alastair Lynch, Tim Lane, Matthew Richardson, Russell Robertson, Dennis Pagan, Rodney Eade, Sam Lane, Jason Akermanis, Peter Hudson, Ron Barassi, Steve Harris (businessman), Andrew Forrest (Australia's richest man), David Bartlett (Tas premier), Paul Lennon (former Tas permier) and John Brumby (Vic premier). Even Jeff Kennett supports the concept in principle but has a conflict of interest as Hawthorn's president. Tassie now also have an impressive list of sponsors already includes Mars, TOTE and MyState Financial.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

All systems go for Tassie bid - but where are they going?

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Monday, September 29 2008 @ 05:38 pm ACST

Sean virtually everyone wants Tassie to have a team if they can afford it. The debate is about whether they can. Barassi says in the article "Tassie's a real heartbreaker - they deserve to be in the competition but I don't see how they can afford it" and "We already have three or four clubs at the money table, I don't think we should do the same thing with Tasmania".

So he believes the only way it can happen is with a Victorian club relocating, and he says it should not be Melbourne. So he would like to see Tassie get a team but thinks it presumably should be North Melbourne or.... if not Melbourne who else is financially struggling in Melbourne? But he is against them getting a new team of their own on financial grounds.

As for lining up people either side, it is mainly dividing up people who think Tassie can afford it or not, or who are prepared to include the financial consideration in answering the question. You say some of the people I named are "part of the AFL system" and so "have conflicts of interests and therefore misquoted". No, better check your definition of misquoted.

However, if you're saying they can't be included as having a valid opinion, well Gale is with the AFL Players Association, does that make him captive to the AFL? Is he as pro-anything AFL as you are anti-AFL? Most people have their own biases. A large number of the people you name are Tasmanians - are they thinking rationally or emotionally - do they just want a team at any cost? As for Andrew Forrest, yes, I believe I was the one who mentioned him in this thread - let's hope he puts his money where his mouth is, as he could single handedly ensure a Tassie team.

Perhaps we can focus on the fresh info you bring to this old thread - the impact of Hawthorn winning the flag. Tasmania is their major sponsor and the Hawks today paraded the Cup around Tassie. You said it will make it harder for Tassie, but also that you think it will motivate them more. I'm really not sure what effect it will have. Yes, should motivate them more and make it seem even more real. But I guess it might make more Tasmanians really get behind Hawthorn, which will make Hawthorn even more keen to keep the deal going, and even more dependent on Tasmanian money and against them getting their own team.

I still think a relocated Melbourne club is their best chance. With a potential world economic downturn it could make life all the more difficult for say North Melbourne, Melbourne and other clubs under the pump. But it also might make it more difficult for Tassie to put up a strong bid.

I think we're all in the dark until a bit more time passes.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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