Debate - World footy rankings 2008 - other countries to consider

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Debate - World footy rankings 2008 - other countries to consider

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Friday, March 05 2010 @ 12:32 pm ACDT

Howdy Guys
Cam again on World Rankings. First to you Aaron, I said I'd do a ranking just using IC resultsbut when I began doing that I discovered I had made a fundamental error in the calculations using the modified Rugby World rankings system, which really scewed teams winning home games.
I have corrected that error and the real ranking for the end of the 09 season should have looked like
1 New Zealand 51.88 Ranking Points
2 PNG 50.71
3 USA 44.69
4 Nauru 44.20
5 Ireland 43.81
6 Great Britain 42.81
7 South Africa 42.00
8 Samoa 41.73
9 Denmark 41.13
10 Peace Team 39.86
11 Canada 38.92
12 Germany 38.29
13 China 35.43
14 Sweden 35.25
15 Japan 34.21
16 Finland 32.96
17 India 32.00
18 Spain 31.05
Ranking at the end of IC2008 looked like
1 New Zealand 51.88
2 PNG 50.71
3 Nauru 44.20
4 Ireland 43.81
5 USA 43.14
6 South Africa 42.00
7 Denmark 41.87
8 Samoa 41.73
9 Great Britain 41.44
10 Canada 40.47
11 Peace Team 39.86
12 Germany 38.08
13 China 35.43
14 Sweden 35.25
15 Japan 34.21
16 Finland 33.17
17 India 32.00
18 Spain 31.05
If you remember that all teams start on 40 ranking pts and Peace Team and China did get a win each in the IC 2008 is the reason they rank higher than teams that have a lot more games included in their score.
Interestingly the Rankings just prior to IC2002 looked like
1 PNG 45.51
2 Ireland 45.06
3 USA 41.69
4 Denmark 41.56
5 Nauru 39.90
6 Sweden 38.86
7 New Zealand 38.33
8 Great Britain 37.79
9 Japan 37.51
10 Canada 35.77
Fewer people would have been surprised to see Ireland win IC 02 if the ranking scheme was in place back then. New Zealand was probably lower here than should have been but their ranking was based on few games with loses against PNG at the Arafura games.
Rankings at end of IC 05 were
1 New Zealand 51.40
2 PNG 48.71
3 USA 45.26
4 Ireland 44.35
5 Samoa 43.05
6 Denmark 40.90
7 Sweden 39.86
8 Great Britain 36.33
9 Nauru 36.20
10 Canada 35.97
11 South Africa 34.00
12 Japan 32.91
13 Spain 31.05
All of the above are not too far off the mark when compared to the ranks determined by the IC results. Advantage is that each country has a ranking value based on games actually played. Disadvantage at present is the fact that some ranks are based only on a handful of matches. IRB ranking scheme only allows country full entry to ranking after 20 matches. Remember also that I can't vouch for every match used is truly at near IC rules.
Hope you spend some minutes looking at these results and may they help you begin to shift your thinking towards a similar scheme. It will be interesting to see what all the ranking methods/schemes look like after the up and coming European Championships.
Regards
Cam

Debate - World footy rankings 2008 - other countries to consider

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, March 07 2010 @ 10:20 pm ACDT

Glad to see you found your mistake. The numbers look much more sensible now. Can you summarise how the scheme works in just a few dot points? What they start with, how much for a win/loss/draw, is the ranking of the opposition taken into account?

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Debate - World footy rankings 2008 - other countries to consider

Authored by: Aaron Richard
on Monday, March 08 2010 @ 08:02 am ACDT

Good work Cam, those figures look fairly close to the mark. If it's feasible and you can help us do it, maybe we should be looking at doing this? I'll shoot you an email.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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