Debate - World footy rankings 2008 - other countries to consider

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Debate - World footy rankings 2008 - other countries to consider

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Friday, March 12 2010 @ 12:51 am ACDT

Hey Cam, as discussed by email, I've had a read of the IRB model and think I follow it okay and that has allayed some of my concerns. Of course the numbers have to be crunched correctly.

With your 2nd last example I think it was:

IC08 Clasification rounds USA 14.12(96) d Japan 2.4(16) USA is 6th with 43.14 ranking points Japan is 15th with 35.01 ranking points No home Advantage so Rating Gap is USA -7.33 and Japan is 7.33 maths for exchange points is USA -7.33/10+1= 0.267x1.5(40plus bonus) =0.400 x 2(IC bonus) =0.800 Japan 7.33/10-1= - 0.267x1.5( " ") = - 0.400x 2 = -.800 so end of IC08 USA 42.34 + 0.80 = 53.14 ranking points and climbs to 5th place Japan 35.01 - 0.80 = 34.21 and stays 15th.

I think that 2nd to last line should be:

USA 43.14 + 0.80 = 43.94 ranking points

So a small step up for the US, no surprise since they were already ranked ahead of Japan.

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Debate - World footy rankings 2008 - other countries to consider

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Friday, March 12 2010 @ 12:58 am ACDT

Some of my other concerns have also been allayed. Such as:

1. Including too much history - no, that is okay, as it sets the rankings but they then adjust as new data arrives, steadily washing out old results.

2. Points exchanged the same for a top team defeating a lower team as vice versa - no, a top team gains less points than the lower team would for a win. The top team on the other can lose whatever the lower team can gain.

3. Initial teams ranked too high - no, although they get 40 points, they are provisional only, used in the number crunching, but not displayed/ranked until a certain number of games to qualify.

4. Teams rewarded for playing often - no, they risk losing just as much as they can gain, unless they systematically keep playing lower sides over and over to very slowly increase their total.

So overall, looks like a pretty reasonable system. Let's keep discussing offline how we might test it and trial it.

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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