Rankings update - Tonga enters provisional list

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Rankings update - Tonga enters provisional list

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Monday, November 29 2010 @ 02:07 pm ACDT

Correct, slowly fleshing out the explanations and recently added the complete list of games. The graphs are just so readers can follow it, the equations are what count. I'll look at adding some plots later.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Rankings update - Tonga enters provisional list

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Monday, November 29 2010 @ 08:53 pm ACDT

Howdy Brett.
May be better to use a couple of real games as samples of the explanation/calculation of how the points change. eg Sweden v GB at European Championships or similar recent game.
Set out in steps a bit like the IRB.
Eg Step 1. Determine the Rating Gap.
Step 2. Calculate the winner's points change.
Step 3. Add/subtract points change from the teams start points to determine final points of each team.
Then repeat process to see what would have happened if GB had won.
Probably be useful to include an example where Home game advantage is in play.
As you have said the graphs are for the "non-mathematical" readers
but the calculations are better understood if we are looking at real games and we don't have to match the numbers to the gradient or the intercept. I understand what you are talking about but had to remember back into the depths of time to work it out. I only stopped thinking like that about ten year ago but many of those whose maths brains stopped working a week after they left school probably are right up the proverbial creek trying to work it out. I will try to come up with a more easily understood ( for us plebs) explanation over the next couple of days if you like.
Cam

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Rankings update - Tonga enters provisional list

Authored by: flyinghigh
on Tuesday, November 30 2010 @ 12:13 am ACDT

hi thanks for the reply..Im 1 of those "non-mathematical" readers..as I said I do get the way its done..but I also like to work it it myself....if you can set up this graph(like the irb model) it would be great..like I said many moons ago I am a stats junkie too and this set up could help alot of us "non-mathematical" readers work it out

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Rankings update - Tonga enters provisional list

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Wednesday, December 01 2010 @ 03:42 pm ACDT

Simplified version of calculating rating change in upcoming matches(I hope).

Let's take the recently played 3rd/4th place play-off at the European Championships between Great Britain and Sweden.

Step 1. Determine the Rating Gap.
Check the pre-match ratings of each team.
Great Britain = 43.51
Sweden = 37.39
Rating Gap is 6.12 (Or -6.12)
No Home Advantage in this match.

Step 2. Calculate the possible Core Rating Change.
Rating Gap x 0.15 + 1.5 = Rating Change
eg. 6.12 x 0.15 + 1.5 = 2.418
Core Rating Change = 2.418 (or -2.418)

Step 3. Determine new Rating Points for each team.
Add or Subtract Core Rating Change from pre-match ratings.
eg. Sweden won
(pre-match Rate + Rate Change = New Rate)
37.39 + 2.418 = 39.808 (39.81)
Great Britain lost
(pre-match rate - Rate Change = New rate)
43.51 - 2.418 = 41.092 (41.10)

Sweden's rate has climbed from 37.39 to 39.81 whereas Great Britain's rate has slipped from 43.51 to 41.10.

However if Great Britain had won then in Step 2.
Rating Gap x 0.15 - 1.5 = Core Rate Change.
6.12 x 0.15 - 1.5 = -0.582 ( or 0.582) and the new rate for each in Step 3. would have been.
Great Britain 43.51 + 0.582 = 44.092(44.09)
Sweden 37.39 - 0.582 = 36.808(36.81)

I've run out of time for now so I'll crunch the numbers for a Home Advantage test and where the win by more than 40 points bonus kicks in tomorrow (eg. USA v Canada on 4th Aug '09)
Cam.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Rankings update - Tonga enters provisional list

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Wednesday, December 01 2010 @ 09:47 pm ACDT

Another sample working of ranking scheme.
USA v Canada 4/8/09 Note USA 12-11(83) d. Canada 5-3(33)

Step 1. Determine rating Gap.
Check the pre-match Rating of each team.
USA = 42.95
Canada = 41.59
Step 1A. Allow for Home Advantage (Canada home team).
USA = 42.95
Canada = 41.59 + 3 = 44.59
Rating Gap = 1.64 (or -1.64)

Step 2. Calculate the possible Core Rating Change.
Rating Gap x 0.15 + 1.5 = Core rating Change
eg. 1.64 x 0.15 + 1.5 = 1.746
Core Rating Change = 1.746 (or - 1.746)
Step 2A. Factor in Plus 40pts win bonus.
Core Rating Change x 1.5(plus 40 bonus)
1.746 x 1.5 = 2.619 (or - 2.619)

Step 3. Determine new Rating Points each team.
Add or Subtract Core Rating Change from pre-match Ratings.
eg USA won
(pre-match Rate + Rate Change = New Rate)
42.95 + 2.619 = 45.569 (45.57)
Canada lost
(pre-match rate - Rate Change = New Rate)
41.59 - 2.619 = 38.969 (38.97)

USA's rate has risen from 42.95 to 45.57 whereas Canada's rate has dropped from 41.59 to 38.97.

However if Canada had won then in Step 2.
Rating Gap x 0.15 - 1.5 = Core Rating Change
1.64 x 0.15 - 1.5 = - 1.2525 (or 1.2525)
and Step 2A plus 40 bonus
- 1.2525 x 1.5 = - 1.878 (or 1.878) and the new rate for each in Step 3. would have been
Canada 41.59 + 1.878 = 43.47
USA 42.95 - 1.878 = 41.07

Hope this makes things a little easier to work out.
By working thru each step prior to a match we can predict what will happen in the event either team wins.
Cam

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Rankings update - Tonga enters provisional list

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Thursday, December 02 2010 @ 12:33 am ACDT

Hey! Flyinghigh. Will this help you and all other arithmetic brains(as opposed to Mathematical Brains)
Step 1. Determine the Rating Gap.
Check pre-match Rate for each nation.
(Higher rated nation) - (Lower rated nation) = (Rating Gap)
(........Team A........) - (.......Team B........) = (.................)
Step 1A. Allow for Home Advantage.
(Hometeam pre-match Rate + 3) substitute for team A or team B above.

Step 2. Calclate possible Core Rating Change.
(Rating Gap) x 0.15 + 1.5 = (Core Rating Change)
(................) x 0.15 + 1.5 = (..............a...............)
Step 2A. Factor in plus 40 Win Bonus.
(Core Rating Change) x 1.5 = (Core Rating Change)
(..............a..............) x 1.5 = (............b.............)

Step 3. Determine new Rating Points for each nation.
(Winner pre-match rate) + (Core Rating Change) = New Rate(winner)
(...............................) + (.........a or b.............) = (...............)
(Loser pre-match rate) - (Core Rating Change) = New Rate(loser)
(.............................) - (..........a or b............) = (..............)

To find the Core Rating Change for when lower ranked team wins, in Step 2. simply substitute minus instead of plus.
eg. Rating Gap x 0.15 (Minus) 1.5 = Core Rating Change
Note: you will generally get a negative Core Rating Change, use it for the loser and add postive amount for winner.

Hope you find this useful, if so, copy it and then merely substitute the values in the brackets every time you want to predict possible rate changes in any upcoming match.
Cam.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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