FIFA World Cup decision - much ado about nothing

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FIFA World Cup decision - much ado about nothing

Authored by: Stephen Alomes
on Monday, December 06 2010 @ 08:18 am ACDT

There are several interesting analyses of the soccer World Cup bid.

One is that it was a rich man's fantasy, supported by govts' and tourism dept's fantasy of great economic benefits.

In other words, Australia had as much chance of winning the World Cup as Frank Lowy had of successfully setting up a shopping mall in Antarctica - the proverbial snowball's chance in Hell!.

That is, as in Michael Lynch's analysis in the Age today (6 December) ,that it dropped the ball and put all its resources into the World Cup and ignored the failing A-League. Even given that the $45 million (including the $7-11M paid to 'consultants', dubious characters who claimed ability to bend FIFA members' ears) came mainly from the govt. that analysis is reasonable.

So, will soccer sink to be the second tier as well as second rate sport it has long been in Australia in the long-haul - assuming also that Aus cannot bid again realistically for the World Cup untl 2034 and perhaps might not have a chance of success before 2042?

The other interpretation, by a blogger on the website The Punch, is that it still remains a demographic juggernaut in an immigrant nation. I reproduce it below (including its erroneous assumption about national leagues). It provides food for thought:

ibast,: on The Punch 07:47am | 02/12/10
Not a fan of the game myself. I just find it boring. Despite this, I think the code will continue to rise in Australia, regardless of whether we get the world cup. There’s a few reasons for this. Firstly we finally have a national competition and it’s the only football code that does. As different teams win the A-league more fans from different parts of the county will follow. The second reason is our population make up. More than half Australian have a non-anglo background now. So if soccer is available for viewing it will become more prominent. The final reason is our kids. I like Union, but I wouldn’t let either of my children play either rugby code. The possibility of permanent physical and mental damage is just too high.
Of course this doesn’t change the fact that Soccer is boring.

So, given the analysis above, that leads on to the question then becomes how are immigrants, including relatively small bodied immigrants from many source countries, to be encouraged to pursue the national game, Australian Footbal? And what is the role of international footy in this?

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Stephen Alomes

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Stephen Alomes

FIFA World Cup decision - much ado about nothing

Authored by: Michael Christiansen
on Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:22 am ACDT

Stephen - the poster from thePunch you refer to seems to have forgotten a couple of elements.
Australian soccer is as much in competition with international soccer tournaments and leagues as with any local 'football' codes. The primary examples around the world illustrate that V3 of the A-League was about the best that could be hoped for - crowd averages around 15,000.
Many supposed 'soccer' nations struggle to draw crowds to their domestic leagues and many 'soccer' nations don't have a national stadium bigger than 40,000! (okay, my main comparison is Scandanavia!!).
At any rate - the A-League thus far shows an opposite to that which the poster predicts.
SFC won last season, had an atten avg at the SFS of 13,000 (boosted by 25K in last round 'blockbuster' vs MVFC). They topped 13K 5 times and only dropped sub 10K twice (ignoring the Parramatta stadium match). This year, in the reflected glory of a pennant, 8 home matches at the SFS, an average of sub 10,000. Only topped 13K once and gone sub 10,000 4 times.
We've seen similar downward trending at MVFC despite winning grand finals and (minor) premiers. MVFC used to be doing 26K at Docklands. That had fallen to 20,000 for the V5 Championship defence in which MVFC again contested the Grand Final and yet dropped 4,500 home average.

That's a sick reflection. Look to the AFL, and even in Sydney, on field success generates crowds. The Swans best crowds are clearly aligned to being a top side, and peaks occur the season AFTER a Grand Final.

The A-League not only doesn't display increases, but, more worryingly, decreases.

Let alone - this year in Melbourne, remembering that last year MVFC played 14 home games at Etihad, avg'd 20,700, never dropped below 15,000 and only went sub 20,000 50% of the time and had a season high 30,668 v SFC in Rnd 10 - - - looking at this year by contrast, MVFC, 9 matches in, brand new state of the art stadium to show off - and they haven't topped 18,000 once.
Let alone, the inclusion of Hearts, Melbourne has now witnessed 18 matches, at an average of 11,356. Boosted by only the 'local derby'.
The inclusion of the Hearts has done worse than simply splitting the Victory support. The sum total is worse, in V5, MVFC drew 290,000 attendees to 14 matches. This year, the combined tally is 204,000 to 18 matches.

These facts, in the 2 biggest markets - combined with the inability to get the 'Rovers' franchise off the ground, and combined with the most recent 2 QLD expansion clubs being far from sustainable models.

The A-League is looking decidedly unhealthy. The major battle is NOT to convince AFL and NRL fans to follow the game, one thinks, but rather, to convince EPL, Serie-A, Bundesliga etc fans to follow the local version. A bit like selling C-grade baseballers and basketballers to Australia when you can tune in on One-HD to see the MLB and NBA.

Sorry for the length - however, I like to include statistical proof to illustrate that I'm not going just on gut feel or pub-talk.

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Stephen Alomes

FIFA World Cup decision - much ado about nothing

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:16 pm ACDT

I think the worry for Aussie Rules is the slow leakage of fans to EPL, Serie-A, Bundesliga, not so much A League locally. But it means if the A League ever takes off then the risk is that there's a ready-made audience for it.

Another interesting question is how is the head of soccer in Australia now regarded? Ben Buckley leads the FFA but was originally an AFL man who many saw as Demetriou's successor. Has his time in soccer enhanced his potential leadership of the AFL by leading an organisation and getting to know the opposition? Or is it diminished since during his tenure the A League seems to have gone backwards and the other big task was getting the WC which also failed?

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

FIFA World Cup decision - much ado about nothing

Authored by: Michael Christiansen
on Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:28 pm ACDT

In todays Herald Sun there's a 'whisper' about Ben Buckley potentially returning to the AFL. Not sure where they've got that from. I guess the presumption is that as he has a 4 year contract - that, no matter how well or poorly he is judged (and how much or otherwise Lowy might've made it tougher than it ought to have been), that Buckley and the FFA might just HAVE to go their separate ways. The 'soccer' folk are looking for 'soccer people' to take charge - good luck to them on that front!!

Re leakage to EPL etc - that was all going to happen with US sports too - basketball in particular. Reality is, Australian Footy is a unique game, and it HAS been attracting the attentions of European (supposedly soccer mad) immigrants for decades.

I reckon the AFL does pretty well on the multi-cultural front. The Asian community perhaps an exception of sorts.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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