International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

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International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Saturday, April 02 2011 @ 09:18 pm ACDT

The internationals being contested this weekend could see some dramatic movement in the World Rankings especially if Sweden can pull off a win over Denmark and Great Britain lose to Ireland.

A Sweden win would see their rank climb 2.50 points to 42.31 which would see them climb above both Denmark(down 2.50 pts to 40.96) and Great Britain(a loss a fall of 0.56pts to 40.54)

However a Denmark loss and a Great Britain win would see Great Britain(up 2.89 pts to 43.99 Ranking Points) climb above Denmark(falling 2.50 pts to 40.96 Ranking points)

If the higher ranked team in each contest wins (as the ranking system suggests) then we would just see the rating gap between the teams widen by about 0.50(0.56) ranking points only.

All the above calculations are assuming there is not a over 40 points win in either of the of the matches.

Prematch Rank and Rating points for each nation:

Ireland 4th 47.37 Rating points

Denmark 8th 43.46 Rating points

Great Britain 10th 41.10 Rating points

Sweden 11th 39.81 Rating points

Cam

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Aaron Richard
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 07:29 am ACST

Results so far -

Ireland 8.11 (59) def Great Britain 8.6 (54)

Denmark def Sweden by about ten goals, scores to come.

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Aaron Richard
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 07:35 am ACST

Which I think looking at your first post means no ranking changes?

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:56 am ACST

G'day Aaron.

If results are as you say there will be one change which I had overlooked. Denmark's win will have it climb over South Africa by 0.29 points. Sweden will slip back a little closer to Canada, Great Britain obviously slipping lower as well, and Ireland creeping that little bit closer to New Zealand.

The system has tested well, by that I mean, the system suggests that the higher ranked teams will win more often than not.

But the Ireland v Great Britain game must have been a good'n, only 5 points in it.

Cam

PS By the way the Advertiser reported the other day that South Adelaide's Ugandan born player could very well play his first league game today against the Eagles. Be interesting to see how he goes.

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: WFN Administrator
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 11:25 am ACST

Cool - good work. So far (ie this weekend and last year in the EC) the rankings are predicting correctly most of the time, which is what should happen if they're accurate!

Once we get the reports in for the two matches, we should maybe put a sentence at the bottom of each showing ratings changes for each team, and make that a feature on all future reports from 16/18-a-side internationals.

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 12:41 pm ACST

That sounds like a good idea. More work for you guys :-) would help make more people aware of the Ranks tho and maybe even add a little extra incentive to some of the matches.

I wiil try to continue to put out the various possible outcomes prior to these matches as well.

The important point is "MOST OF THE TIME" the system will predict the outcome, and if you go back even further it does just that, MOST OF THE TIME!

Cam

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Aaron Richard
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 04:56 pm ACST

Nah, it isn't too much more work if we've worked out the possibilities beforehand. It definitely adds a bit of extra interest.

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:31 pm ACST

After the weekend's two internationals the World Ranks should look like this:

Australia
Papua New Guinea 53.89 23
New Zealand 53.84 27
Ireland 47.93 +0.56 31
Nauru 47.06 13
United States 46.53 29
Denmark 44.21 +0.75 35
South Africa 43.92 16
Samoa 41.85 18
Great Britain 40.45 -0.56 37
Sweden 39.06 -0.75 18
Canada 38.01 29
Germany 34.37 9
Japan 33.33 18
Finland 29.02 12

Note: Denmark has snuck into 7th place over South Africa.

Provisional Teams No Change

Croatia 40.61 4
Tonga 40.00 3
Peace Team 39.88 5
Iceland 35.64 4
China 34.00 5
India 28.33 5
Spain(Dormant) 28.00 6

*last value = games played.

The Rank and rate for each is correct if Denmark defeated Sweden by more than 40 points.

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Monday, April 04 2011 @ 09:55 am ACST

Howdy Folks.

The new Rates for Ireland and Great Britain should actually be 47.48 and 40.99 respectively. The Rating Change for these teams was only 0.11 and -0.11 respectively. No change in Rank for either nation. I must have used an incorrect value some where on the home computer last night to get previously published result. My apologies.

Cam

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Tuesday, April 05 2011 @ 09:49 am ACST

World Ranks following Denmark v Sweden and Ireland v Great Britain Internationals played in Copenhagen and Dublin respectively on 2nd April 2011.

Australia
Papue New Guinea 53.89
New Zealand 53.84
Ireland 47.48 +0.11
Nauru 47.06
United States 46.53
Denmark 44.22 +0.75
South Africa 43.92
Samoa 41.85
Great Britain 43.42 -0.11
Sweden 39.06 -0.75
Canada 38.01
Germany 34.37
Japan 33.33
Finland 29.02

Provisional Nations

Croatia 40.06
Tonga 40.00
Peace Team 39.88
Iceland 35.64
China 34.00
India 28.33
Spain 28.00 Dormant.

This time all is correct.

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Troy Thompson
on Tuesday, April 05 2011 @ 11:03 am ACST

Cam not sure whether the points of the positions are wrong but have a look at 9 and 10.

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Tuesday, April 05 2011 @ 11:12 am ACST

Note that we'll have an "official" WFN release (story) of these results in the next few days, once Cam and I have both had a chance to double check each other's numbers.

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Tuesday, April 05 2011 @ 04:24 pm ACST

Yep! Stuffed up again. Great Britain's Rating Points should be 40.99. No b----y idea where that 43.42 came from. My wife has been telling me for weeks to go and get new specs. Maybe I'd better take up her advice.

Cam

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

International Double-Header in Denmark this weekend

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 04:50 pm ACST

E. Irra, South Adelaide's Ugandan born player kicked one goal in his first league game today, tho in a losing side.

I seem to recall he played for theWorld XVIII last year, I might be wrong tho.

Cam

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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