World Rankings update

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Authored by: Cam Homes
on Wednesday, April 06 2011 @ 05:21 pm ACST

Yep! Looks better when up to "the minute" :-)

The other day it was mentioned that so far the syatem had predicted that the highest ranked team would win most of the time. Got me thinking how often had a really low ranked team beaten a higher ranked team( where rating gap was more than 10points). Answer: only 3 times. 2 of which can really be counted.

Can't count Japan 29.65 d. Spain 40.00(gap 10.35)(Spain's first game so 40.00 artificially high). at IC05.

Can count GB 34.97 d. Ireland 48.58 in Ireland(gap 13.61) 29/9/07 and

Japan 31.16 d. Samoa 46.73 at IC08(gap 15.57) It was rated at the time as a shock result.

Only other lower ranked team to upset much higher ranked team(Rating gap>9.00) was South Africa 38.05 d. USA 47.22 (gap 9.11) at IC08.

And looking thru all the other matches where the rating gap was more than 10.00 the expected team won more than easily(more often by biiiiiigggg margins).

Point I'm trying to make is that the Ranking scheme is telling us to avoid playing teams where the rating gap is more than 10.00 or 12.00 or so points if it is at all possible because the match is most likely to be a walk-over. So hopefully the IC organisers do take a look at the Ranks when Seeding teams in the divisions later in the year. Of course still getting as much crossover between regions as possible .

Cam.

World Rankings update

Authored by: nikko
on Wednesday, April 06 2011 @ 06:40 pm ACST

Your world ranking is a very good job, a very good idea to know where the nations are actually, but using it for ic2011 would be a really bad idea.

It would mean: 1st division: PNG, New Zealand, Ireland, Nauru, USA, Denmark, South Africa and Samoa

2nd division: Great Britain, Sweden, Canada, Japan, Finland, and maybe Croatia, Tonga and Peace Team

3rd division: China, Indonesia, India, France, Iceland, Fiji, East Timor and Switzerland

It would be a really great challenge for division1 teams, but Canada and Japan, both in the last 8 in 2008, have to come to australia without hope about winning.

And can you imagine China, France, Fiji or Iceland coming to the ic only to play low ranked teams, the sort of teams they could play in Europe or Oceania without making a big and expensive trip

If AFL is using your world ranking to make divisions for this IC, they could face a lot of cancellations: Canada, Japan, Great Britain, China, France, Fiji, Iceland, and maybe more...

But hopefully they won't do this mistake and they'll make a footy carnival for the first day, with short matchs. Short matchs will let every team think they have a chance to win, let even switzerland or indonesia players see what the high level is, and we'll avoid big crashes like India-New Zealand at IC2008 and a lot of hurted players when the gap between 2 teams is too important. I think this carnival is a really good idea from the AFL

Thank you for your rankings, but you have to think about players who spend a lot to come and play this IC

Nikko, international player ready for IC 2011

World Rankings update

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Wednesday, April 06 2011 @ 08:34 pm ACST

Thanks Nikko for your comments.

What you say is true if they use it as you have suggested and IC11 is split into 3 divisions.

I suspect that the organisers will split the competition into only two divisions of 12 teams, each division split into two pools of six but the teams in each pool only playing 4 of the other teams as is proposed in the womens competition. If this is the case I think that the point I made earlier is to avoid having teams that have rating gaps of more than 10 or 12 points playing each other is valid. The Ranks do tell us that these matches will more than likely end in thrashings.

eg. use the ranks to make sure #1 ranked team doesn't play #6 ranked team in any particular pool where these teams are seperated by 10 or 12 or more points.

I also believe the IC organisers are pretty well obligated to use the finishing order of the last IC to rank teams. So the new teams are likely to be ranked by looking at who they may have played in the last couple of years.

Cam

World Rankings update

Authored by: Aaron Richard
on Wednesday, April 06 2011 @ 08:45 pm ACST

I got the impression from the AFL's last press release that the first round will be a lightning premiership for seeding matches - so no divisions decided until after the first round in Australia (as Nikko said).

They'll probably sort pretty close to the rankings, but at least newbies would have one shot at taking on a major team.

Worth noting though - China's management already stated that they wanted to be in Div 3 as they would prefer to play other new nations rather than get pounded. Some others like India or Indonesia might see it the same way. Regards who they play against, although China's in the Asia Pacific, they don't at this stage really have the resources to play against other teams outside the IC, so it won't matter too much if they're in with India and Indonesia (or even Japan - though the Samurai have toured to China once, and would probably be in a higher division either way).

That might change in future, but at the moment I don't think it'll bother China/India/Indonesia to be in a division with other sides from the same region.

The European sides, on the other hand, would almost certainly prefer to have a chance at as many non-European teams as possible, as they currently already play quite a bit against the other Euro nations in the EC and EU Cup etc.

World Rankings update

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Thursday, April 07 2011 @ 09:25 am ACST

I seem to recall that the feeling amongst the Finland players was that they weren't too keen on coming to the IC if they though they would go home winless again let alone take floggings from the power teams.

Cam

World Rankings update

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Wednesday, April 06 2011 @ 10:23 pm ACST

Good to hear your thoughts Nikko.

The only info I've seen about how the AFL may organise the men's comp, if I recall correctly, was from my interview with Tony Woods. It's probably time we tried to find out how things have progressed.

But as Aaron has said, there are definitely some teams that do NOT want to play against the top sides - been there, done that, got smashed badly and did not enjoy it. I suspect you learn something from a 5 or 10 goal loss, but 30 goals - questionable. But each player will have their own opinions.

I do suspect the AFL will use IC08 positions, which is fair enough.

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

World Rankings update

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Wednesday, April 06 2011 @ 11:07 pm ACST

And yes, I like the idea of the lightning carnival type start to IC11, so that lower teams get a chance to show if they really can mix it with the top teams. And if not, at least they got a taste of what to aspire to, without a series of full length matches to get smashed in. As did 61% of voters in our poll: [poll_result:IC2011_format]

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

World Rankings update

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Thursday, April 07 2011 @ 10:30 pm ACST

Nikko is also assuming in the 3 division scenario 24 teams. We've asked the AFL for an update but it seems unlikely that all the teams that remain in the running will make it to the tournament. A lot of fundraising still to be done by many of the nations. I don't think 3 divs was ever confirmed, so 2 is just as likely.

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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