Final World Rankings prior to IC11

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Final World Rankings prior to IC11

Authored by: footyjules
on Sunday, June 19 2011 @ 08:33 pm ACST

Hi,

I dont think your log is applicaple to the current International system. Teams not playing regular International matches will always be at the bottom. There is no way Denmark can be where they are nor Nauru.

It will be interresting to see what the log looks like after the International Cup!! That will give you a clear indication of where each team stands.

Final World Rankings prior to IC11

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Sunday, June 19 2011 @ 09:01 pm ACST

I definitely agree the rankings are not perfect, but I'd argue they are better than nothing - media and sponsors and the public look for a quick snapshot of the sport and it's not good if there isn't any.

But specifically to your comment about Denmark and Nauru, I think their ranks are pretty accurate. Probably South Africa are better than their position, but that's based on one good tournament, IC08. Obviously they have to back that up to rise all the way up the ranks. Nauru have a solid history and by the end of IC08 looked as good as South Africa and Ireland.

So other than South Africa being higher, why do you reckon the other two are too high?

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Final World Rankings prior to IC11

Authored by: Troy Thompson
on Sunday, June 19 2011 @ 09:46 pm ACST

Will the first "lightning" round of the IC be counted towards the rankings? I notice the write up on the rankings says "regular" IC matches. I assume the shorter the games the more chance for an upset (a result that goes against the statistical rankings)?

Let's all remember that these are figures based on the past and unless all teams are to remain the same strength forever then matches future results are not always going to follow the rankings. Also with such a small amount of data spread over a long time there are plenty of factors that can skew rankings.

They are by no means official and I find them a good discussion starter, other than that I agree with Brett that in the absence of any other rankings it is a handy reference point. Just as handy though is the list of results used to calculate the rankings, from which you can draw your own conclusions.

The most important factor will be the actual teams that each country put out and what they do on the field.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Final World Rankings prior to IC11

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Tuesday, June 21 2011 @ 10:48 am ACST

Troy asked the question earlier:

I agree it needs to be addressed. I think we'll wait and see what the final draw looks like, how long games will be etc, but I do have some initial thoughts. Games are generally weighted by a factor of 1 for our rankings. In keeping with what they do in the Rugby Union World Cup we apply a factor of 2 to International Cup matches as they are considered the most important and most likely, in general, to have the best squads available (we know that isn't always possible with travel and time commitments, no one ever brings their absolute best team). I suggest that if the AFL stage a first round lightning tournament for initial seeding of teams then we should consider including those games but with a weighting of 1 not 2.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

Final World Rankings prior to IC11

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Monday, June 20 2011 @ 12:45 am ACST

Hi Footyjules.

Nauru finished 5th at IC08, Denmark were further back but have beaten Sweden and Great Britain in Euro Champs 10 losing to Ireland in final by 17pts so have crept up the ranks since IC08.

South Africa finished 3rd at IC08 but they started the tournament ranked 11th and their success pushed them up to 7th. Perform as well at IC11 and they would certainly climb higher into the ranks.

The ultimate test of whether the ranks are accurate is that higher ranked teams will win more often than not, and so far that has been the case. When a lower ranked team has won it usually has usually pushed them up the ranks or at least their rating has increased.

Yes! teams that rarely play will not move very much as the system only uses the results of games played not the perception of those watching them or playing in them.

I believe that the ranks are pretty accurate as they stand, considering the number of international matches that are played each year.

The upcoming IC will certainly test the system and I am confident at tournament's end the ranks will generally reflect the respective ability of the teams taking part.

The system is not static but a dynamic system that reflects each team's standard at the time they play their last game. Their rate can only change when they play their next game and but other teams results can have them rise above or fall below a team that hasn't played for a while.

Read the eligibity criteria, and how the system works(see World Rankings-Method) and also if you go back and check out the match results you will see that it is fair for all teams, ie. teams that play often are at no advantage over teams that only play now and then.

Play and win against a team with similar rank will see movement in the team's rating and possibly their rank, play and lose to a team where the points gap is large does not advantage the higher ranked team nor disadvantage the lower ranked team.

Unfortunately our system does not yet have an archival set up which would enable you to check out the ranks historically but I can assure you that system has worked pretty well and higher ranked teams have won more often than not, from the second and third games ever played, right up until now.

When lower ranked teams have won, their rating has risen, and more often than not, their rank has risen also.

I am willing to provide the historical ranks for any given date at which teams played an International match and any change that occurred as a result of that match.

Cam

---
Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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