World Footy News

The 2009 Australian Football League Grand Final will be played between two of the most dominant teams in recent memory. St Kilda finished the minor round with 20 wins and 2 narrow losses. Geelong will be playing in their third Grand Final in a row and have an imperious record over 2007-2009. The football public await an intense battle of the sort seen in 2005 and 2006 when Sydney and West Coast battled out thrillingly tight contests.

However, the result doesn't always live up to the hype as one side cracks under the weight of expectation, but in terms of season form these are the two power sides of 2009 and the odds are good for a classic match. And despite it often being said that Grand Finals regularly have blow outs, out of the last 12 AFL Grand Finals only 4 have been decided by 40 points or more, with 3 being by 10 points or less.

Both of this year's contenders appeared to lose form late in the season, though both may have contrived that situation. This writer's suspicion over recent weeks was that Geelong might be able to recapture their flair to go to a higher level, whereas St Kilda's biggest asset was its pressure, something that all the top teams can replicate and deal with in September. Based on that observation, perhaps St Kilda can't really take their game any higher, something they will need to do to limit Geelong's firepower. Depending on how you rate Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs, it could be argued that the Saints' finals form has been workman-like. Geelong on the other hand have slowly begun to show their magic.

For the Saints to break their long drought it would seem that not only must they suffocate their opposition like never before but champion captain Nick Riewoldt will once again have to carry them across the line. Big games will also be required from players like Justin Koschitzke up forward and Steven King in ruck to negate the effect of Brad Ottens, looking ominous after missing most of the season. The Saints also have some star midfielders but Geelong match them there.

The Cats have game breakers on every line. Steve Johnson (just a few weeks post hip surgery) lights up their forward line, Scarlett will provide run from defence, Chapman is the league's premier small goalkicker be it as a forward or on-baller, Hawkins continues to show he may become a star, and captain Harley will be set to drop back in front of the forwards, keen to amend for last year when he was knocked out. Ottens is dangerous around the ground and dropping forward, there's a plethora of fast mid-sized players who can kick goals, and a midfielder by the name of Gary Ablett Jr, as well as a host of other talent.

The key would appear to be whether St Kilda can hold Geelong from breaking into its free flowing style. Colingwood did it early but couldn't keep it up, and the larger MCG makes St Kilda's style harder to implement than their usual haunt, Etihad Stadium. With windy and wet conditions predicted that should help the Saints lock the game down, though Geelong see the same weather regularly at their home ground. A score of around 15 goals would probably be beyond St Kilda in Grand Final conditions, but if they can limit the Cats to around 11 goals and get a big game from Riewoldt and a small forward such as Milne with Koschitzke and Gardiner chipping in, then they may just be a chance.

Every final so far has gone according to ladder position. But I'll stick my neck out and predict a tight contest early with St Kilda exerting unprecedented pressure, Geelong scoring some late goals in the second quarter as a sign of things to come, then winning the third and drawing away in the last for a 35 point win. Gary Ablett Jr to be good but reasonably well held, but regardless either he or Chapman winning the Norm Smith for best on ground.

At time of writing our poll is still open.

For fans outside of Australia, our Grand Final Parties list is here.