World Footy News AFL World Rankings
- Thursday, July 18 2024 @ 03:10 pm ACST
- Contributed by: Cam Homes
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With the resumption of International Australian Rules Football Matches when the 2024 Trans-Atlantic Cup gets under way on 2nd August in Toronto, Canada, and the debut of Colombia and France Women* to International 'Footy' I think it is appropriate to refresh everyone on how our World Footy News World Ranking scheme works.
Australian Rules Football World Ranking
The Australian Rules Football World Rankings are a “Points Exchange” system in which sides take points off each other based on match results. Whatever one side gains, the other loses. The points exchanges are based on match result, the relative strength of each team, and the margin of victory, and there is an allowance for home advantage.
Points exchanges will be doubled during the International Cup, in its present form, so as to recognize the importance of the event. All other ‘International’ matches are treated equally.
Any match that does not meet the match criteria (see below) will not count for ranking.
All ranked teams (nations) will typically have points between 0 and 100.
For each match there are only five possible outcomes that can affect points exchanges, either side winning by
more than 40 points, either side winning by less than 40 points, or a draw.
All countries start with a rating of 40, and their rating will be treated as provisional until they have played eight (8) matches.
The ratings in this type of scheme are responsive to match results, however, there is a maximum that any nation’s rating can move, either up or down, based on one match result, to ensure the system does not over-react to a ‘freak’ result.
There is no particular advantage playing more matches than another team. Under this system, a country has a certain rating, which will stay the same until they play their next match. Although matches will usually result in points exchanges and lead to very minor changes, losing to a nation many points above it (>10) will incur no loss and vice versa no advantage gained by defeating a much lower rated nation.
The system is designed to produce an accurate picture of current strength, based on actual match results. The importance of any nation’s past successes will fade into history and be superseded by more recent results.
Some research has been done on matches dating back as far as 1994 so that a reasonable measure of accuracy and reliability has been built into the system.
Home Team Advantage
When calculating points exchanges, the home side is treated as though they are 3 (three) rating points better than their current rating. This will in effect be ‘handicapping” the home side as they will tend to pick up fewer points for winning and giving more away when losing. In this way the advantage of playing at home is cancelled out.
Margin of Victory
We believe that match results are more important than margins of victory in producing accurate rankings. Whether a nation wins by 80 pts or 120 pts against a much lower-rated team is not a good indicator of future performance. However, we believe it is significant whether a side wins relatively comfortably -that is with something to spare- so a weighting of exchange points x 1.5 is applied to nations winning by more than 40pts.
Becoming Dormant
When a nation does not play an eligible match for over 5 (five) years it becomes Dormant, that is, it retains its rating points but is no longer ranked. On playing its next eligible match it may rejoin the ranks at the current rating. When a nation does not play an eligible match for over 8 (eight) years it is removed from the Ranks. (Note. Due to Covid pandemic this is now 10 (ten) years.
Match Criteria to be Ranked.
IC matches; IC Rules
Matches played prior to IC 2002: At least 12-a-side and more than 8 players being nationals.
Matches played since IC 2002: At least 14-a-side and more than 12 players being nationals.
Matches played from 2010: At least 16-a-side and more than 14 players being nationals. Residency period for Ex-pat Aussies = 6 (six) years living permanently in adopted country.
*Must note that a few French ladies are no strangers to International Footy with quite a number experiencing 'combat' through the European Crusaders 'battles' at IC 2017 particularly the memorable last game win against Pakistan Shaheens.