WFN World Rankings post Fiji v Nauru Test Series

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WFN World Rankings post Fiji v Nauru Test Series

Authored by: Brett Northey
on Wednesday, November 28 2012 @ 06:40 am ACDT

Yeah but I bet 90+% of our people involved in international footy would think Denmark should be ranked higher... just because the maths comes out against them doesn't mean it's a true reflection - there's infinitely many different possible models for rankings.

The original discussion on whether to include 9s was back here I think: Is this the first step towards the Official World Rankings?. Not sure why you didn't get involved then Ian, you were a regular contributor in that era.

As for 9s rankings, we do have an internal set but haven't gone public with it. Very subject to nations often fielding heavily expat based sides and hard to get the data to resolve that.

For me, I think the 18s rankings we have is a pretty good reflection of the state of the national sides, it has a few weaknesses that one day I'd like to address, but at least it's "fair" in that it isn't just a person's opinion... if a nation is discriminated against by a quirk of the maths or the stats then it's just a case of bad luck, and there may well be times when the same country gets some good luck too.

What I find curious is that international Rugby uses a very similar system and presumably has more resources to find something better and yet does not. It must surely also suffer sometimes from countries playing in clusters rather than branching out against much higher ranked opponents.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

WFN World Rankings post Fiji v Nauru Test Series

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Wednesday, November 28 2012 @ 08:53 am ACDT

Rugby doesn't need to find another system because it serves them very well and is a very good reflection of the relative strength's of the world's Rugby playing nations. There are 90 plus nations in the system and the nations tend to play against nations that are not too far removed from them on the ranks because difference is enormous between the top fully professional nations thru to the semi pro nations in around ranks 15 to 24 then the rest are virtually amateur Nations many of which are only University based. It does not suffer from nations playing in clusters but rather benefits from that whereas footy suffers from being forced to play teams where the relative strengths gap is too wide. eg NZ v India, Sth Africa v China- IC08 and ditto those matches in seeding rounds in IC11 plus Ireland v Timor Leste, PNG v Tonga, (and others) matches that would never happen in Rugby.

I would suggest that the difference in strength in Rugby from top to bottom (1 to 90 nations) would be as wide as footy' is in only 20 or so nations.

International Footy played 4 matches this year, Rugby in Europe has played 4, 5 and even up to six matches every weekend during September, October and November this year (RWC qualifying matches) and these matches have all been played in groups where the relative strengths are fairly similar. Winner of group elevated into next higher group for matches next year loser relegated and so on. Same for Asia, Africa, West Indies and Sth. America earlier in the year. None of those matches have yet come close to deciding which nations will fill the bottom 8 (out of 20) places at the RWC Finals in 2015.

Its not the system, its the lack of nations in the system and games played in International Footy at present that appears to rank nations outside what we all think is their proper rank. Denmark is probably ranked low because of the maths and their win/loss ratio at IC11. They also haven't played their annual GB match this year which a win would have probably pushed them back up the ranks possibly 4 or 5 spots. (understand funding players in AIS/AFL match, Continent team and Euro 9's broke the bank for Denmark this year).

The middle bunch of nations (from about rank 9 to rank 16) will have teams looking out of place whilst the number of nations in the system is as small as it is now, especially when some Nations don't play many games outside of IC's.

I don't how we can make the system better ( other than have one that takes in other factors other than match results) except hope we can get a few more International matches played over the next couple of years. eg. China v Japan (not far away geographically), Samoa v Tonga, PNG v New Zealand, Solomon Islands v Vanuatu and France v Italy, Norway v Finland, Netherlands v Germany or even get Czech Republic and Croatia in the mix. All matches where relative strengths are pretty similar, and pushing the spread further apart.

Hey! we can all dream can't we!!!

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

WFN World Rankings post Fiji v Nauru Test Series

Authored by: Cam Homes
on Wednesday, November 28 2012 @ 06:40 pm ACDT

The Ultimate TEST of the Ranking System's validity and accuracy in determining the relative strengths of the International Footy playing nations is that the Higher Ranked nation will win more often than not, and the likelihood of the Lower Ranked nation winning increases as the Rating Gap between the combatants gets closer.

If you look at all the results of all the international matches played over the last few years (and even go further back) that TEST has rung true. Even when we all have thought nations were not in their 'correct' rank.

THE Higher Ranked Nation HAS won more often than not, and where the Lower Ranked nation has got up, the rating gap was relatively close.

PLay more International Tests!!! YEAH!!

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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