World Footy News

Who will grab fourth spot and go through to the semi-finals of the 2014 AFL International Cup?  It's almost impossible to call.

First up, who will the other 3 be?  Our understanding of the AFL's rules for IC14 are that the top team in each pool at the end of Round 3 will go through.  As you can see on the ladders (Ladders after Round 2) there's six nations still in contention.  Ireland and Nauru, PNG and South Africa, New Zealand and USA are all on 2 wins 0 losses.  Each pair are drawn to play each other in Round 3 (Community Round).  This doesn't seem likely to be a coincidence.  Unless there's a draw there will be one team sitting on top of each pool on 3 wins 0 losses.  They go through.

If the matches go on historical form that means Ireland, New Zealand and PNG.

Then the pools are combined to determine 4th spot - the last semi-final position.  We've crunched some numbers and come up with some fascinating possibilites, with Nauru, South Africa and the USA all obvious candidates, but Tonga, Fiji, Canada and Great Britain all in with big chances too.  That's even tighter than the AFL's run to this year's finals.

The ladders are now taking shape after Round 2 of the 2014 AFL International Cup and with just 1 round remaining before breaking into divisions we can begin to see who is in contention for the coveted Men's semi-finals and a chance to play on the MCG in the Grand Final.

The Women's is straight forward but the Men are divided into 3 pools, with the complication being that the top 4 that go through to the semi-finals after 3 rounds are the top of each pool and then the next best based on combining all the teams - hence we've also shown a Combined ladder.  That will also determine the teams that make what the AFL has called Division 1, i.e. teams 5 - 12, and Division 2, i.e. teams 13 to 18.

There are, as always, some bizarre percentages, due to lopsides matches and not in a small way because we've stuck to the AFL / Victorian way of calculating percentage, which is now spreading throughout Australian football  throughout the world, namely points for divided by points against multipled by 100, rather than the conventional maths of for divided by (for plus against) multipled by 100.  So the % means per 100 points scored by the opposition, not per 100 points of the total scores.  As such New Zealand, on 355 for, 0 against, have a percentage that is infinite or undefined.

WFN Women’s World Rankings post Round 2 IC14

A World Ranking Scheme as applied to the 21 Women’s International Tests/Matches played at the completion of Round 2 International Cup 2014 would look like:

1. Australia
2. Canada  48.13 10 matches played*
3. USA  40.24 10 matches played*

WFN World Rankings post Round 2 IC14

The Round 2 matches again played out as the Ranking Scheme predicted, that is, each higher ranked country prevailed over its lower ranked opponent. Three of the nine matches had a +/- 10.00 rating gap and although each of these matches resulted in 100+ point wins no advantage was gained by the higher ranked nation and no loss by the defeated nation.

The Canadian Northern Lights continued their march towards another Grand Final appearance, easily accounting for the United States reserves side; the Liberty.

The Canadians came in as heavy favourites to beat the Liberty after having just convincingly defeated the Freedom earlier in the week. The opening quarter showed that the favourites tag was definitely deserved, kicking six goals to none. The quarter time score showed Canada leading 6.2 (38) to 0.0 (0).

Despite this being the first match of the tournament for the Liberty, Canada did not show any mercy, adding on another three unanswered goals in the second quarter. The Lights went into the main break with a score of 9.6 (60) to 0.0 (0).

A chilly morning at Ransford Oval saw the United States Freedom redeem their loss to Canadian Northern Lights, coming out with a much stronger performance against the Canadian reserves side; the Midnight Suns.

The Freedom started the match strongly, dominating with #21 Hallie Lee winning all of the hit-outs in the centre. The Freedom capitalised on those hit-outs, going in to the first quarter break with three unreturned goals. The scoreboard read the United States leading 3.2 (20) to Canada 0.0 (0). 

New Zealand played in another massive mismatch today against the China Dragons winning 28.26 (194) to 0.0 (0). Having also run up a cricket score against the Sweden Elks on Sunday whilst also holding their opposition to no score the Hawks defence has seen little work thus far.

Today's game was played at the Linen House Oval in Seaford, the training base for the St Kilda Saints.  There was a crowd of over 250 there with many local schoolchildren.

Fiji today ran out to a 208-point victory over newcomers Indonesia.

Indonesia had a tough initiation to International Cup footy on Sunday against the Nauru Chiefs, but had fought out that game despite the odds, to notch an elusive goal. The task today on Ransford Oval was to take on Fiji and with a 3 day break it’s all part of a very steep learning curve.

The challenge for Fiji was to maintain their focus and not develop bad habits. The coaches reinforced the message to keep it simple, 1 handball, 1 kick – old fashioned footy in some respects. It was too easy at times to lairise and perhaps the main criticism of Fiji today was a little show of contempt for the opposition by playing on too often when marking within range where a set shot was called for.

This small display of over confidence did result in many of the micro victories that the Garudas would focus on as positives. They continued to harass and tackle and their rewards were the free kicks earned.

When two light guernsey coloured teams go out to play, it looks like the Finns in white have too many tall players, a visual distortion caused by their white jumpers and shorts and by their lesser ground skills than the Swedish Elks.

Except, the hand International Cup football record demonstrated that both teams had few players over 190 cms, a contrast to the British Bulldogs. They just looked tall. From the beginning, the Swedes dominated and went to a big lead of 4.5 (29) to a scoreless opposition by quarter time.

By half time it was Sweden eight goals up over a struggling Finland.

The Irish Warriors produced a solid but unspectacular performance to beat a gallant French side 17.9 (111) to 0.2 (2) for their second win of the tournament. Although the Irish were rarely troubled at the back, they will know that a better overall performance is demanded when they take on Nauru on Saturday with a semi-final place up for grabs.

Led by a commanding performance by 203 cm giant ruckman Paul O’Halloran, the Warriors came out firing with Padraig Lucey simply too big and too strong for the French defense. Although the French showed plenty in terms of endeavor the Irish were able to play the game on their terms isolating their taller targets one on one in their forward 50.

Goals came thick and fast in the first quarter as the Irish took a 6 goal lead into the first break.

Teams in the International cup face the same dilemma as do AFL sides these days. Not only do they have to improve but face improved opposition. Reading the first round reports the South Africans easily accounted for a locally assembled Pakistan not unexpectedly.

Tonga also easily accounted for an improved India. Considering the scorelines are very similar, this promised to be an even and interesting affair. The weather was fine and cool perfect for football, the anthems and chants finished. Time for the game to begin.