The following is a quick review of this author's thoughts on who might win the Men's Division 1 at the 2017 International Cup.
In terms of realistic prospects let's face it, there's the big 3 of PNG, Ireland and New Zealand, and then there's the rest. That's probably a bit harsh, and South Africa and the United States probably deserve a nod too. Between them, those 5 nations have filled the top 4 spots at all 5 international cups thus far. Are there any new challengers? I'm afraid not.
France and Fiji were first timers in Div 1 in 2014 and put up some good contests but were no match for the top sides. They should be increasingly competitive against the middle Div 1 sides but the matches against the top teams may still expose a large gap. Aussie Rules is high scoring and merciless in exposing a difference. Grabbing 1 or 2 wins each would be a great achievement.
Looking to the middle ranks of Div1 and Canada (juniors maturing), Great Britain (more regional teams) and the USA (metro leagues) have growing numbers to draw on and steady improvement is expected but probably not a major leap. Great Britain has a tough draw, while Canada and the USA face off in round 1 so probably only one will remain a Grand Final chance after that and will have to knock off one of the big 3 (PNG, Ireland, NZ) to make it.
Nauru are always dangerous but are probably limited by population size, I'm not expecting significant improvement. But take them lightly and you'll get a scare on the scoreboard to go with a physical battering on the field.